NATO chief to meet Harper but won’t press PM to extend Afghan mission

Fen Hampson of the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs comments on Canada’s role in Afghanistan.

Byline: MIKE BLANCHFIELD
Publication: Canadian Press
Date: Friday January 8th, 2010

OTTAWA _ The head of NATO meets with Prime Minister Stephen Harper next week but will not press for Canadian troops to remain in Afghanistan beyond 2011, The Canadian Press has learned.

When Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen took the top job at NATO five months ago, he made strong statements urging members of the 26-country alliance to boost troop levels in the face of the growing Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan.

But Harper and top military officials have made it clear recently that few, if any, Canadian soldiers will be left on the ground past that withdrawal date, which was set by Parliament two years ago.

Asked whether Rasmussen will ask Harper to consider an extension of the 2011 end date for combat operations in Kandahar, NATO spokesman James Appathurai said Friday from Brussels: “I don’t expect so.”

Appathurai said Canada can make significant contributions to the discussion of NATO’s wider goals.

“The main focus of the discussions will, of course, be Afghanistan,” Appathurai said. “But NATO has a broad agenda.”

NATO is undertaking a major update of its strategic goals this year as Norway next week hosts what is expected to be the first of a series of major seminars for alliance members, partners and other international organizations.

Rasmussen’s visit will raise questions about Canada’s role in NATO after the country’s participation comes to an end next year in what is the alliance’s signature mission in Afghanistan.

Canada’s intention for military withdrawal in 2011 is well known to its allies, but it nonetheless poses great challenges to Rasmussen and the prospects for success in Afghanistan, said Fen Hampson, director of the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University.

“As Canada leaves, others will also leave,” said Hampson.

“What we’re going to see, in effect, is a progressive disengagement. Rasmussen’s problem is the Americans are ratcheting up their level of commitment while everybody else is beginning to either actively head for the exit or is thinking about heading for the exit.”

U.S. President Barack Obama has also set a deadline of July 2011 for making significant progress in Afghanistan so that he can begin a withdrawal of some of his American forces.

“In fact, by the middle of 2011 or so, we should know a great deal. Miracles are not likely, but major change should be visible,” said an analysis by the Washington think-tank, the Brookings Institution, written last month by Afghanistan experts Michael O’Hanlon and Bruce Riedel.

Hampson said there are still many unanswered questions about what Canada will do in Afghanistan after 2011.

“The government’s mantra has been we’re going to do development assistance and help with the soft side of nation building. But if you’re essentially faced with a situation of the kind that you have now, with an escalating insurgency, mounting instability, it’s very hard to do those kinds of things,” he said.

“There isn’t going to be any great appetite to be throwing dollars into a well where you can’t really see what the outcome is going to be.”

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff said Friday that Harper’s three-month prorogation of Parliament has shut down the opposition’s ability to ask the government specific questions about its plans for Afghanistan after 2011.

“Is it really the end of the mission?” Ignatieff asked Friday. The Liberal leader said that is one of many questions he would like to be asking on behalf of all Canadians during the daily question period in the House of Commons.

“We think this is a crazy way to run a democracy.”

Canada currently has 2,800 combat troops in Afghanistan, most of them in Kandahar, the traditional heartland of the Taliban.

In addition to his meeting with Harper, Rasmussen will hold talks with defence chief, Gen. Walt Natynczyk, Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon, Trade Minister Stockwell Day, who chairs the cabinet committee on Afghanistan, and Defence Minister Peter MacKay _ one of the people he beat out for the NATO job.